Crypto seen as the ‘future of money’ in inflation-mired countries

Last year, cryptocurrencies reached a “tipping point,” according to Gemini’s 2022 Global State of Crypto report, “evolving from what many considered a niche investment into an established asset class.” 

According to the report, 41% of crypto owners surveyed globally purchased crypto for the first time in 2021, including more than half of crypto owners in Brazil at 51%, Hong Kong at 51% and India at 54%.

The study, based on a survey of 30,000 adults in 20 countries over six continents, also made a strong case that inflation and currency devaluation are powerful drivers of crypto adoption, especially in emerging market (EM) countries:

“Respondents in countries that have experienced 50% or more devaluation of their currency against the USD over the last 10 years were more than 5 times as likely to say they plan to purchase crypto in the coming year than those in countries that have experienced less than 50% currency devaluation.”

Brazil’s currency, the real, experienced a 218% devaluation — suggesting high inflation — against the United States dollar between 2011 and 2021, and 45% of Brazilians surveyed by Gemini said they planned to purchase crypto in the coming year. 

South Africa’s currency, the rand, recorded a 103% devaluation in the past decade — second only to Brazil among the 20 countries in the survey — and 32% of South Africans are expected to be crypto owners in the next year. The third and fourth highest devaluation, or inflationary, countries, Mexico and India, displayed a similar pattern.

By comparison, the currencies of Hong Kong and the United Kingdom experienced no devaluation at all against the U.S. dollar over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, relatively few surveyed in those countries, 5% and 8%, respectively, professed an interest in purchasing crypto. 

What conclusions can be drawn from this? Noah Perlman, chief operating officer at Gemini, sees different crypto use cases, often depending upon where one lives. He told Cointelegraph:

“In countries where the local currency has been devalued against the dollar, crypto is viewed as a ‘need to have’ investment, whereas in the developed world it is still largely seen as ‘nice to have.’” 

Crypto as currency replacement 

Winston Ma, former managing director and head of North America at China Investment Corporation and now adjunct professor at New York University School of Law, makes a key distinction between an asset that works as an inflation hedge and one that is used as a currency replacement.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) have yet to achieve “inflation hedge” status, unlike gold, in his view. In 2022, they have behaved more like growth stocks. “Bitcoin correlated more tightly to the S&P 500 index — and Ether to NASDAQ — than gold, which is traditionally viewed as an inflation-hedge asset,” he told Cointelegraph. But, things are different in parts of the developing world:

“In the emerging markets like Brazil, India and Mexico that are struggling with inflation, inflation may be a primary driver of cryptocurrencies’ adoption as a ‘currency replacement.’”

“There’s no denying that in early days and still now adoption has been driven by countries where currency stability and/or access to proper banking services has been an issue,” Justin d’Anethan, institutional sales director at the Amber Group — a Singapore-based digital asset firm — told Cointelegraph. Simply put, developing countries are more interested in alternatives to easily debased fiat currencies, he said, adding:

“On a USD notional basis, the larger flows might still come from institutions and more developed countries, but the growing number of actual users will probably come from places like Lebanon, Turkey, Venezuela and Indonesia, among others.”

Sean Stein Smith, assistant professor in the department of economics and business at Lehman College, told Cointelegraph that he was not particularly surprised by the survey’s…