BTC starts 2022 all over again — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week and a new quarter as if it were starting the new year — at just over $46,000.

In what will seem like some serious deja-vu for hodlers, BTC/USD is at practically the same level it was on Jan. 1, 2022.

Price action has been quiet — too quiet, perhaps — in recent days, but behind the declining volatility, there are signs that the market is busy deciding future direction.

From macro to on-chain, there are in fact plenty of cues to keep an eye on in April, amid a backdrop of Bitcoin — at least so far — retaining its yearly open price as support.

Cointelegraph takes a look at five of these factors as they pertain to BTC price performance over the coming week.

Inflation meets fresh money printing

There has been much talk of the end of the post-COVID “easy money” period and the impact it’ll have on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

As the United States Federal Reserve pledges to reduce its record high balance sheet and keep raising key rates, commentators have sounded the alarm over what could be a shockwave hitting investment into crypto.

So far, however, there is little sign that a fundamental shift is underway, while in Asia this week, it seems like the opposite is true.

As highlighted by markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz, Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has in fact added to its balance sheet but printing even more liquidity.

The BoJ already had the largest balance sheet relative to GDP, and that trend is only increasing, now at 136% of GDP.

For Zschaepitz, this is not only a surprise, but could be “the biggest monetary experiment in history.”

“In comparison, the ECB and the Fed look like amateurs,” he argued.

If more printing means more good times for risk assets, meanwhile, not everyone is even convinced that the long-vaunted balance sheet reductions will last. Central banks, they claim, will soon have no choice but to restart liquidity injections.

“There is no government, ever, that resisted the temptation to print money in order to pay its bills and placate its citizens. The government will never voluntarily go bankrupt. This is axiomatic. I challenge you to contradict me with evidence,” Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, wrote in a blog post in March.

“Therefore, if your time horizon is in the years, it’s time. If you mess with the bull, you get the horns. Remember: it’s not gold or Bitcoin that is increasing in price, it’s a decrease in value of the fiat currency in which they are priced.”

The contrasting view, as signaled by last week’s yield curve inversion, pits rate hikes against the now high risk of a recession in the U.S. — a combination that should pressure Bitcoin and stocks alike.

Spot bulls aim for $50,000

The lack of volatility is the main talking point among Bitcoin traders and analysts as Monday gets underway.

Some classic but brief excitement around the weekly close faded within hours, with bears still failing to take the yearly open away as support, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

With that, BTC/USD is in exactly the same place as it was three months ago, but short-term price signals are already seeing some calling for continuation higher.

Among them is popular analyst TechDev, who highlighted Bitcoin’s first “volatility squeeze” since January playing out on the 12-hour chart.

12H $BTC volatility squeeze forming.

First since January. This one is during green trend bars.

Breakout arrow will indicate direction when it occurs. pic.twitter.com/5QZDl92p7f

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) April 4, 2022

TechDev used indicators including the Bollinger Bands volatility measure, which is now seeing BTC/USD surfing the middle of the channel with a skew to the upside.

As Cointelegraph reported, the odds are already on for an attack on the $50,000 mark, which will be Bitcoin’s…