Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with analysts looking for a bottom — but one which may not mean a dip to $40,000 or lower.
After an unremarkable weekend, Bitcoin bulls now face a fresh week of bearish sentiment across the global economy as risk appetite stays tepid.
Amid the lack of a “Santa rally” for practically anyone, there seem to be few triggers to help BTC/USD return higher in time for the new year. At the same time, on-chain metrics remain strong, and miners are refusing to spend.
With Christmas almost here, Cointelegraph takes a look at what to look out for this week when it comes to assessing where Bitcoin may be headed.
$50,000 seems far away for Bitcoin bulls
Bitcoin failed to produce any significant moves over the weekend, but now, attention is turning to a potential volatile “bottoming” for the market.
At $46,000, BTC/USD remains firmly entrenched in a familiar range, with bulls failing to find the momentum for a fresh attack on the $50,000 mark.
Buying is occurring, particularly among smaller retail investors, but for seasoned market participants, lower levels are likely.
For popular trader Pentoshi, these could nonetheless avoid a retest of $40,000. In a tweet Sunday, he highlighted major exchange Bitfinex and its large-volume traders as a likely source of support.
“Finex makes the tops and bottom on $BTC. Believe this is a similar situation where they will just absorb selling at these key levels. See Sep post 40.7k bottom,” he wrote, referencing market events from the end of September.
“Now looking for 42-46k bottom imo.”
Others were more optimistic, with fellow trader Galaxy calling for a “green week” led by altcoins.
With ten days left of the year, a surprise finish to 2021 is also not being universally ruled out when it comes to crypto markets.
In its latest market update, trading platform Decentrader brought up Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT indicator as a possible springboard to higher price levels.
Still bottoming, the historical cycle metric could yet produce a surprise for traders, having almost hit its lowest “overbought” level ever.
“Will we see the same this time with a bounce and rally into the Christmas break? Or will we see more year-end profit-taking?” the update summarized.
“Right now $BTC is at a key decision point level, so it would certainly be wise to manage one’s risk carefully until a clear trend emerges.”
Miners keep hodling
One cohort of Bitcoin hodlers in no mood to sell at current prices is miners, whose outflows have reached their lowest in three months.
According to data from Glassnode, miner outflows have almost halved in just over a month, reiterating the turnaround in market dynamics since the all-time highs.
A similar dramatic fall came in September, with spot markets then bottoming two weeks later. This month’s action, therefore, has historical precedent.
Further data shows that unspent supply is about to hit all-time highs, the culmination of a hodling trend from miners which began in 2020.
In other words, miners are in no hurry to spend their block subsidies once a new block is successfully mined.
#Bitcoin miner unspent supply is currently sitting just 500 $BTC below ATH.
These coins are issued to miners as a reward for solving a block, but have never been spent onchain.
Miners started HODLing significantly more $BTC since March 2020.
Live Chart: https://t.co/D2jZTD0O52 pic.twitter.com/vJy1G41Xvf
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 20, 2021
Macro swaps 21-month bull run for volatility
Macro volatility is set to continue into 2022 in a trend which is unsettling investors, sources warn this week.
Just like Bitcoin, an unexpected bout of bearishness means that Q4 this year may end with a whimper and deny the market its classic “Santa rally.”
At fault…
Read More: cointelegraph.com