What if crypto never ends up as more than a niche product?

George Moore’s five steps of tech adoption

The modest market size of cryptocurrency in comparison to other asset classes is an argument used by bulls to imply tremendous additional upside.

Considering that the crypto market-cap has a limited market valuation there pops up a defensive argument that say “crypto has become just a niche product”.

An interesting author, Mr. Moore, has laid out his perception of how innovative tech gets through public acceptance.

Geoffrey Moore explains that disruptive technologies must migrate through five distinct stages of adoption.

In his 1991 book “Crossing the Chasm” he explains these five stages of adoption by bringing up the people and phases involved:

Stage One is the innovators and tinkerers
Stage Two is when the early adopters and optimists come over
Stage Three is when the early majority onboards
Stage Four is when the late majority joins
Stage Five is when the sceptics and laggards pile in

Stages Three and Four are the two biggest groups.

There is “the chasm” between Stages Two and Three.

The chasm is the one that distinguishes and selects the early adopters from the early majority.

This is because the desires, aspirations and needs of these two groups are falling into different categories.

The early adopters are “futurists”, looking for the future and optimistic visionaries that adore novel things that have a spin of fun in them inherently.

This group of people has the patience and willingness to pass through a phase of reformation, awkwardness and discovery of what “this-novel-thing” does.

Mainly, by playing, using and exchanging it, they feel cool.

Now, the early and late majority pay more attention to three important features:

1) Functionality

2) Ease of use

3) Clear problem/solution fit

Technological advancements and novelties that are unable to make the jump across the chasm… remain just niche, or die!

Seeing the picture below, was it 2017 that the green part of the graph happened and 2021 for the yellow part?

And a much more difficult question (no easy answer here):

Will the green part be on 2025–2030 or will the crypto industry drop into the chasm?

Unless cryptocurrencies become more consumer-oriented, interoperable and unconsciously used then the problem remains.

Currently, crypto appears to be in the chasm.

Can it make it to the other side by using Web3 as a vehicle of the next usability and application exploratory phases?