Tron Price Prediction: Can TRX clear the hurdles of Q3 2022 and Q1 2023?

• Tron’s price prediction is worth evaluating as it stays toe-to-toe with ETH, BNB, and SOL. 
• Clearing the Q1 2023/Q3 2023 price ceiling of $0.073 could give TRX more gains.

The crypto market has seen its fair share of trials in early Q2 2023. In the same period, Tron [TRX] deployed a deflationary action and overshadowed competitors Ethereum [ETH] and BNB Chain on TVL and active addresses. Still, its native token, TRX, had a sluggish performance on price charts; hence, it is worth evaluating Tron’s price prediction. 

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However, according to Artemis, Solana [SOL] surpassed Tron on daily transactions as of press time, showing that the former was making more revenue. 

Despite the cutthroat competition on the network front, how does TRX stand out on the price charts?

TRX price prediction: Can bulls clear this obstacle?

Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView (Daily chart)

Despite the 60% rally after the FTX saga and early Q1 2023, TRX stalled at $0.073. At press time, the recovery seen in mid-March, rising from $0.05500, has hit the $0.73 level again. 

Zooming out on the daily chart, the $0.073 is not only a bearish order block (OB) formed on 20 March 2023, but also a critical selling pressure zone back in July/August 2023 (Q3 2022). 

This makes it a sticky multi-month hurdle that can either make or break the TRX’s uptrend momentum seen at press time. 

With the price action above the 50-EMA (blue line) and 100-EMA (orange line), alongside a rising RSI and CMF, the bias as of press time is bullish. 

However, if the sticky hurdle thwarts bulls’ efforts, TRX could correct and drop to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.06720). But the drop could steady at the dynamic EMAs. A breach below the EMAs will signal a significantly weakening market structure. 

On the upside, the clearance of the Q1 2023/Q3 2023 price ceiling of $0.073 could tip TRX to offer more gains. Based on the weekly chart, potential bullish targets are $0.0788 and $0.083 if an upside breakout occurs. 

Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView (Weekly Chart)

In addition, the weekly chart shows 2023’s price action has been steadily in the upper range, with the mid-range level near $0.06 acting as a critical support level. 

A bullish breakout is likely if Bitcoin [BTC] holds $27k and surges.

Daily and weekly charts had RSI and CMF above median levels, indicating that TRX was bullish on higher time frame charts. But bulls must wait for a decisive breakout and continued uptrend before making moves. 

However, the bullish breakout scenario could be delayed or nullified if BTC falters amidst ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations. Such a development could tip the scale in favor of bears, TRX sinking to the 78.6% Fib level ($0.06720), or a weekly forecast of $0.06 could become a reality. 

Will sellers gain leverage?

Source: Santiment (TRX’s volume)

Unlike TRX’s July/August 2022 trading volumes, press time levels remain muted at around 205 million TRXs. Besides the spike during the FTX fallout, TRX’s volume has remained below 500 million. 

Similarly, the open interest (OI) rates, which measure the number of open trade positions, have declined significantly since July/August 2022. The metric’s value was about $88 million at press time compared to over $200 million in July/August 2022. 

Ergo, the low volume, and OI could complicate matters for bulls and undermine their capability to inflict a breakout above the supply level of $0.073.

Source: Coinglass (TRX’s open interest rates)

However, the rising CVD (Cumulative Delta Volume) spot on the 1-hour timeframe shows bulls still had market influence at the time of writing.

The metric has risen since May 12, showing a rising demand and overall bullish sentiment. 

Source: Coinalyze (CVD spot on the 1-hour chart)

Moreover, according to Coinalyze, over $320k in short positions have been liquidated, compared to only $1k worth of long positions in the past 24 hours. This reinforces the bullish sentiment at press time. 

Read Tron’s [TRX] Price Prediction 2023-24

In conclusion, TRX could mount above $0.073, a key resistance level in Q1 2023 and Q3 2023, only if BTC rallies above $27k and the US debt ceiling talks settle. 

However, with the low volumes and OI compared to Q3 2022, breaking above the $0.073 resistance level could be more challenging to bulls. In such a case, sellers could intervene.