The Dark Times Are Here. Where Is Bitcoin?

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Bitcoin emerged in the darkness of the global financial crisis in 2008. The Bitcoin white paper represented a genuine breakthrough in thinking about coordinating complex systems in a decentralized environment. Though not every idea in it was new, Bitcoin’s combination was ground-breaking in its scope and potential for reliability.

The Bitcoin white paper was something else as well: a political statement about the inherent untrustworthiness of central banks, banking regulators and governments more generally. Satoshi Nakamoto expressed strong distrust of central banks in early emails introducing Bitcoin, and the Genesis Block itself contains a copy of a London Times headline from 2009, announcing that Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer was considering a second bank bailout.

Bitcoin is supposed to be an alternative to the corrupt and corruptible governments, a bulwark against totalitarian states that removes their power to debase currency and seize assets from the population. Proof-of-Work, its consensus mechanism, is designed to prevent bad actors from corrupting the overall path of the network and self-custody means that no central authority can expropriate your assets. It was designed not just as a system of money, but a source of strength and independence in dark times.

But, now the dark times are here, and Bitcoin is missing its moment. The U.S. dollar is the world’s leading safe-haven asset, and it is under attack. Huge deficits (6.7% of GDP) and a high debt ratio (121%) along with a deeply dysfunctional government should point to a lot of good reasons for bitcoin to soar. It’s mostly treading water (priced at $104,500 as we publish this).

I can think of several reasons why. First, Bitcoin simply does not have the track record and staying power of other safe-haven assets. It is not that people are not seeking alternative safe havens; they are. The dollar is sinking against foreign currencies and gold, the oldest of all safe-haven assets, is hitting new highs. Fears about the regulatory position of bitcoin have eased, but access is still limited for many investors.

Despite its recent history as a risk-on asset, in theory, bitcoin could be the very best asset in the world for de-risking a portfolio. Its issuance is fixed and the Proof of Work system, if no longer state-of-the-art, is still extremely well-proven. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin and, no matter how high the price goes, it is not possible to create any more of it. Unlike gold and other precious metals, when prices increase, ever more challenging mining options become feasible, and more gold gets mined.

So, is this game over for bitcoin? I think not. Though it would be nice if bitcoin were soaring, this moment may simply have come too soon for bitcoin to be the haven of choice. Fear not; this is certainly not the world’s last economic and political crisis. Between now and the next one, bitcoin has some work to do.

Bitcoin has one assignment before the next upheaval hits: Prove it can still evolve.

That means fixing the three doubts now blocking mainstream capital. First, make self‑custody idiot‑proof—hardware, recovery, and insurance. Serious investors do not want to go dumpster-diving to find their lost hard drives. Memories of past crises, including caps on insurance and “bail-ins” for wealthy investors, are a reminder that if they are “not your keys, they are not your coins.”

Second, ship a quantum‑resilient signature scheme before quantum computers make private keys passé. Quantum computing’s future path is uncertain, but clever people are slowly but steadily making progress in this space. The risk to network security is real, even if the timeline is uncertain. The recent approval of NIST post-quantum signature schemes suggests that this reality is approaching.

Third, reverse the miner‑consolidation trend with incentives that keep hash power distributed. Ethereum has done a great job working on resilience, distributing staking activity and building multiple client models. Bitcoin is lagging far behind in this space.

We know hard pivots are possible. Five years ago, Ethereum’s fees were choking growth; one merge and a roll‑up boom later, it looks nimble and more decentralized than ever. Bitcoin does not need to imitate Ethereum, but it must borrow its urgency. If the community can tick those three boxes, the next flight‑to‑safety could finally land on bitcoin.

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