Technical Analysis by Matrix Method (2023/4/28) Bitcoin, what will happen in May? : Rakuten Wallet

In this paper, the Bitcoin market is analyzed in 5 stages (5 → 1: Strong → Weak) using six representative technical analyzes: pattern analysis, moving average (9MA/25MA), Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and RSI. Evaluate the strength of the market with the average.
I believe that fixed-point observation and objectivity are important in technical analysis. The aim is to eliminate arbitrariness and improve accuracy by combining multiple representative analysis methods.

*This article is a reprint of the technical report of “Rakuten Wallet”.

summary

The overall score is 3.5. The pattern analysis cleared the half-price return, and it became a strong form with a high price try since the beginning of the year, but other indicators have not followed. Even if the stock breaks out of the 4.1 million yen level, which is the highest price since the beginning of the year, it may suggest that the top price will be heavy.

pattern analysis

It rose from the 2.6 million yen level to the 4.1 million yen level, stopped falling at the 3.6 million yen level, which was pushed by 38.2% of Fibonacci, and surpassed the 3.85 million yen level, which was a half-price recovery. In the short term, it is likely that the price will try to hit the previous high price, as in the case of “half price return is full price return”. From a long-term perspective, the 4-5 million yen zone is at a level where the flight time was long in 2021, and it may take some time to complete the “sell” of the long position that has been salted.

Rating: 5

moving average

A dead cross occurred on April 24th, but there was a backlash, and it seems likely that it ended in a trick. 9MA is turning upward, but it is hard to say that the golden cross is imminent.

Rating: 3

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

The conversion line fell below the reference line, and the buying sign of a three-way upturn that lasted for more than a month disappeared. It remains above the clouds and continues its long-term uptrend, but the baseline is flat and the short-term direction is fading.

Rating: 3

bollinger bands

The expansion of the band is taking a break, and it seems to be slightly contracting. There is no sense of direction within the band.

Rating: 3

MACD

MACD is turning upwards, is the golden cross imminent?

Rating: 4

RSI

Neutral around 50.

Rating: 3

grade

Yasuo Matsuda
Rakuten Wallet Senior Analyst
Majored in the international monetary system at the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. He is engaged in foreign exchange and bond sales and trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank and Deutsche Bank Group. Since 2018, she has been engaged in analyzing and forecasting the crypto-asset market at a crypto-asset exchange company, and is forecasting a peak of 8 million yen in 2021 and 5 million yen at the end of the year, which is almost right. Current position from January 2022.

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| Editing: coindesk JAPAN
｜Image: Rakuten Wallet
｜Reprinted from: Rakuten Wallet