Technical analysis by matrix method (2023/4/21) Bitcoin, can I sell here? : Rakuten Wallet

In this article, the Bitcoin market is analyzed in 5 stages (5 → 1: Strong → Weak) using six representative technical analyzes: pattern analysis, moving average (9MA, 25MA), Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and RSI. Evaluate the strength of the market with the average.
I believe that fixed-point observation and objectivity are important in technical analysis. The aim is to eliminate arbitrariness and improve accuracy by combining multiple representative analysis methods.

*This article is a reprint of the technical report of “Rakuten Wallet”.

summary

Overall score is 2.8. As usual, MACD, which moves early, has a sell signal. The top price looks heavy, but it is not yet clear whether it will slide down. We need to be a little more cautious as to whether the price will fall further or enter a range.

pattern analysis

When the price breaks above 4 million yen, it forms a head-and-shoulder formation and falls, and the neckline of 3.9 million yen is likely to be the immediate weight. On the other hand, the price around 3.8 million yen is likely to be supported at a level that is consistent with March. Looking a little longer, it formed a large head and shoulders in 2021 and was sluggish. Due to the long flight time at this level, long flights with a cost of around 4 million yen have accumulated, and it seems that it will take some time to finish the sales.

Rating: 3

moving average

9MA turns downward and yellow signal. However, there is still some distance from the 25MA, and a sell signal has not yet been reached.

Rating: 3

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Buying sign of 3-yaku turnaround continues. The baseline is flat, the lagging line is approaching the candlestick, and momentum is fading.

Rating: 4

bollinger bands

The expansion of the band took a break, and the candlestick bounced off the upper limit of the band and moved to the center. I have no sense of direction.

Rating: 3

MACD

A dead cross has occurred, and both lines are facing downward and the sell sign is on.

Rating: 1

RSI

Neutral around 50.

Rating: 3

grade

Yasuo Matsuda
Rakuten Wallet Senior Analyst
Majored in the international monetary system at the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. He is engaged in foreign exchange and bond sales and trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank and Deutsche Bank Group. Since 2018, she has been engaged in analyzing and forecasting the crypto-asset market at a crypto-asset exchange company, and is forecasting a peak of 8 million yen in 2021 and 5 million yen at the end of the year, which is almost right. Current position from January 2022.

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| Editing: coindesk JAPAN
｜Image: Rakuten Wallet
｜Reprinted from: Rakuten Wallet