Solana reverses some Q3 losses: Will it go all the way?

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

• SOL retested mid-August levels, reversing part of Q3 losses.
• Spot and Futures market demand improved from September.

Solana [SOL] started Q4 on a bullish note after posting a +11% pump on 1 October. The weekend pump followed Bitcoin’s [BTC] reclaim of $28k. 

Is your portfolio green? Check out the SOL Profit Calculator 

In late September, AMBCrypto explored a possible short-term range extension before a likely surge for SOL. The projection was validated, but SOL’s rally hit a key hurdle on the daily chart as of press time. 

Can bulls clear the hurdle?

Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView

The recovery that began in September was extended into Q4, with an 11% pump on 1 October. But the rally hit a daily bearish order block (OB) of $24.06 – $25.30 (red). 

In the meantime, BTC also hit its range-high of $28.3k and was yet to front a bullish breakout as of press time. Until the bullish breakout occurs, SOL could derail at the $24 hurdle and could make the $21.0 – $22.3 (cyan), a key buying interest in case of a pullback. 

An extended recovery could target $26.85 or $30, thus providing bulls with more room to maneuver if BTC doesn’t post losses in the mid-term. 

Conversely, a crack below the previous resistance near $22 (cyan) will weaken the higher timeframe market structure. 

Meanwhile, SOL recorded massive capital inflows, as shown by the sharp uptick in CMF. Consequently, the RSI surged into the overbought zone, reinforcing the increased Spot market demand in the past few days. 

SOL’s demand in the Futures market improved

Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView

The Futures market demand also improved, as shown by the positive Open Interest (OI) rates. According to Coinglass, OI increased from around $210 million in early September to >$350 million at press time. 

How much are 1,10,100 SOLs worth today? 

In the 24 hours before press time, the OI was up 8% (approximately $388 million). Besides, the Futures market trading volume also increased by 40% at the time of writing, underscoring the bullish momentum. 

But a BTC price reversal at the range-high could complicate SOL’s recovery efforts, hence the price was worth tracking.