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By: Tanay Ved
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We estimate Coinbase to report ~$2B in total revenue for Q4 2024, a 65% increase QoQ and 109% YoY, driven by a rebound in transaction revenue and steady growth in subscriptions & services.
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Trading volumes surged to ~$430Bโthe highest since Q4 2021โfueled by renewed market optimism post-U.S. election, while USDC supply grew 23%, likely boosting Coinbaseโs stablecoin revenue.
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Base generated 8,047 ETH ($26.36M) in sequencer revenue and 7,417 ETH ($24.18M) in profit, maintaining strong profitability as low settlement costs on Ethereum sustained high margins.
Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) is set to report its Q4 2024 earnings results on February 13th . As the only publicly traded major cryptocurrency exchange listed on the U.S. stock marketโ and an increasingly diversified blockchain businessโ its financial performance will be closely watched by both crypto market participants and Wall Street alike. Q4 shaped up to be a bullish quarter, fueled in part by Donald Trumpโs election victory, which helped drive renewed optimism in the space. Investors will now be eager to see how Coinbase capitalizes on this momentum, especially as an easing regulatory environment and expected growth in crypto IPOโs promise to bring competition from other prominent players in the industry.
In this issue of Coin Metricsโ State of the Network, we preview Coinbaseโs Q4 2024 earnings using a combination of Coin Metricsโ suite of market data and on-chain data alongside publicly available information.
Going into the earnings results, analysts expect Coinabase to report $1.59B in total revenue, ~$300M higher than its Q3 2024 revenue of $1.2B and anticipate an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13. While this projects quarterly revenue growth for the company, we believe Coinbase will exceed these expectations driven by a combination of growth in transaction revenues and subscription and services revenue, the two core segments of their revenue mix.
Looking at prediction markets like Kalshi, participants are forecasting $445B in total trading volume over the quarter with a 70% probability. This represents a 140% increase from Q3.
Coinbaseโs transaction revenue consists of income earned from consumer and institutional trading, as well as their Layer-2 Base and payments related revenue, which was reclassified from consumer to โOther transaction revenueโ in Q1 2024.
With Coinbaseโs daily trading volume resampled to the past eight quarters, Q4 2024 stands out as the highest quarterly trading volume (~$430.4B) since Q4 2021. Donald Trumpโs U.S. election in November has fueled substantially higher trading activity on the exchange. This increase should stem from both consumer and institutional cohorts, supported by improving sentiment, heightened crypto volatility, and regulatory momentum under a crypto-friendly administration, all of which are expected to boost retail and institutional participation in crypto markets and operations.
Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Feed
Based on a quarterly trading volume of $440B, we estimate Coinbaseโs Q4 2024 transaction revenue at ~$1.4B, reflecting a 175% YoY increase. This is driven by:
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Consumer trading contributing ~$1.3B, based on 20% of total trading volume and a 1.5% take rate assumption.
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Institutional trading generating ~$102M, based on 80% of total trading volume and a 0.03% take rate assumption.
If materialized, Q4 2024 Transaction Revenue would eclipse Coinbaseโs total revenue in Q3 2024 of $1.2B. Having completed only one month of the quarter, Q1 2025 also points to a strong start, reversing the trend of suppressed transaction revenue in recent quarters.
Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Feed & Coinbase Q3 2024 Shareholder Letter
We can also dive deeper to understand the markets and assets that compose trading volumes on Coinbaseโs exchange. Utilizing Coin Metricsโ candles data, we can see the top stablecoin (or fiat) and non-stablecoin markets by trading volume over the quarter. Among stablecoin-fiat markets, USDT-USD led with $49.4B in volume, suggesting Tetherโs strong demand as a key on/off-ramp for USD. Meanwhile, USDC-EUR ranked fourth with $2B, reflecting its growing adoption in euro-based markets, likely supported by regulatory clarity from MiCA compliance. BTC, ETH, XRP and DOGE saw high demand, while ETH-BTC was the most traded non-stablecoin market, at $1.6B for the quarter.
Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Feed
Since November, Coinbase has gradually eased on its measured approach to exchange listings, adding memecoins like PEPE and dogwifhat (WIF) which could continue to support consumer trading volumes.
Base is Coinbaseโs optimistic rollup, an Ethereum Layer-2 built on Optimismโs OP stack which is an increasingly important part of Coinbaseโs on-chain footprint. Base exemplifies that operating a Layer-2 on the Ethereum network is a profitable business model, reinforcing why firms like Kraken, Sony, and Deutsche Bank are entering the space. As the sole sequencer, Coinbase earns revenue from transaction fees for ordering and processing transactions on Base, while incurring costs in the form of blob fees paid to Ethereum Layer-1 for settlement.
Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro, Coin Metrics Labs
Over Q4 2024, Base generated 8,047 ETH ($26.36M) in total revenue, with 630 ETH ($2.18M) in blob fee costs, resulting in 7,417 ETH ($24.18M) in profit. For most of the quarter, profit margins remained between 80-100%, but declined to ~45% by late December as settlement costs (blob fees) increased. Q4 looks to be a strong quarter for Base, driven by sustained demand for Layer-2 transactions and a broader surge in on-chain activity, reinforcing its role as a leading L2 on Ethereum.
Over recent quarters, Coinbaseโs revenue from subscriptions and servicesโwhich includes blockchain rewards from their staking business, stablecoin revenue from Circleโs USDC and custody revenue from U.S. spot ETFsโhas accounted for ~30%-50% of net revenue. In a prior analysis of Coinbase, we learned how the company displays a growing, but varying correlation to variables like stablecoin supply or staked balances. In Q3, this segment represented $556M in revenue, with the majority coming from stablecoin and blockchain rewards.
Coinbase earns revenue from the USDC stablecoin primarily through interest income on reserves via a revenue-sharing agreement with Circle. In Q4 2024, USDC supply grew 23% to 43.2B and now stands near 55B, likely boosting Coinbaseโs platform balances. As they continue to integrate USDC, users globally can earn ~4.5% APY on holdings or borrow USDC against Bitcoin expanding its utility.
However, lower treasury yields compared to prior quarters may limit the revenue impact of USDCโs supply growth. Based on these factors, we estimate stablecoin revenue at ~$250M, a modest increase from prior quarters.
Source: Coin Metrics Stablecoin Dashboard
Blockchain rewards were the second-largest revenue source in Coinbaseโs Subscriptions and Services segment, generating $154 million in Q3 2024. Although ETH and SOL staking balances remained relatively flat quarter-over-quarter, higher average asset prices likely drove a moderate increase in USD-denominated revenue.
Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro
With custody balances exceeding 1.1M BTC and additional revenue as the primary custodian of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, custodial fee revenue is expected to rise above $35M. Coinbase also stands to gain from the adoption of FASB accounting rules, which allow public companies to report crypto holdings at fair value, potentially boosting earnings amid rising asset prices.
Beyond custody, Coinbase continues to expand its product suite with assets like cbBTC, a tokenized version of Bitcoin usable in Ethereum and Solana applications, Bitcoin lending through Morpho, and enhancements to Coinbase Wallet, strengthening its role as an infrastructure layer in the crypto ecosystem. Including corporate interest and other income, we estimate Subscription and Services revenue to come in at ~$570-600M.
Coinbase is firing on all cylinders and appears well-positioned to extend its market leadership. With transaction revenue rebounding and subscriptions & services revenue remaining strong, we estimate Coinbase will report ~$2B in revenueโa 65% quarterly rise and 109% YoY increase. COIN shares currently trade at ~$280 and show a moderate correlation to the NASDAQ. As transaction revenues improve, Coinbaseโs strong distribution, expanding stablecoin footprint, and Baseโs dominance position it for long-term growth and deeper integration within the crypto ecosystem. As Coinbase matures with its diverse revenue streams, it continues to blur the lines between a bank, brokerage, and payments company, reinforcing its role in bringing the world on-chain.
Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro
Ethereumโs active addresses increased by 16%, while Avalanche C-chain saw a 194% growth over the past week. Adjusted transfer value for USDT grew by 50% on Ethereum and 28% on Tron, while USDC on Ethereum rose by 38% by the same measure.
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