This is a full transcription of the “Bitcoin Magazine Podcast,” hosted by P and Q. In this episode, they are joined by Ansel Lindner to talk about the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting.
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[00:00:05] Q: I wanna remind everyone, the tickets for Bitcoin Amsterdam are on sale. Use promo code BM live to get 10% off of your tickets today and come to the biggest party in all of Europe come party in Amsterdam with the Bitcoin Magazine crew, October 12-14. And now I am pleased and excited to introduce our guest for today.
I consider a friend, someone that I truly listen to all the alpha that he speaks. He is the host of Bitcoin and Markets as well as the “Fed Watch” podcast. He’s a writer for Bitcoin Magazine and the writer of the newsletter, Bitcoin and markets. Ansel Lindner. Welcome back to the show.
[00:00:39] Ansel Lindner: Hey, thanks Q for having me. Yeah, you guys, this is the best reporting on, on the internet for Bitcoin.
So that was a great little snippet from the outside of the courtroom with Hodlonaut. And I thought that was great. Thanks for having me.
[00:00:55] Q: No, thank you, Ansell. And I wanna reiterate if any people are watching this in concern that we’re not speaking to Craig Wright. We have put in a request to his team to interview him.
We are awaiting a response from his team. So, if you have a line to Craig Wright, please feel free to let him know. We would love to hear his side of the story as well. We are reporting this fully independently. There is no bias in what we are doing. We’re simply reporting the facts. If you think there is bias, my friend, that’s on you. But let’s dive in, Ansel. Yeah. Yeah. You pissed me off a few weeks ago and that’s why I was like, I need him on the show.
[00:01:27] Ansel Lindner: Oh no. Oh no.
[00:01:30] Q: So I wanna go back in time a couple of weeks and, I fell into the camp of, I guess everyone else. So therefore I’m in the wrong and you are most likely in the right, because you are the only person that I read and I read way too many newsletters in macro analysts.
Okay. Who really felt like Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole was more dovish than hawkish. And I really took what he was saying and maybe to a fault, I took what he was saying, literally, because this is the same man who looked us all in the eyes and said, inflation will be transitory with a straight face.
I wanna first just understand your interpretation of how and why you feel like Powell is actually going to be a lot more dovish than his. In that moment. Oh, well,
[00:02:23] Ansel Lindner: I mean, I don’t, I, I don’t remember the exact things that he said there. But it wa first off it wasn’t a policy statement, like, you know, coming from an F OMC meeting or something like that, where he’s saying exactly what they’re gonna do, what they’re thinking that the market had put a lot of weight onto exactly what Powell was going to say there.
And it was a short and sweet statement. He came in and got out. That’s what I remember specifically from that. I don’t remember all the different parts that were, I thought might be more dovish than hawkish, but for Powell, generally, Powell has pivoted once, twice before, right. He’s pivoted from tightening in 2018 to easing in 2019. And then in 2021, he pivoted very quickly from easing to tightening again. So he has pivoted out of the blue several times. And remember that first time in 2018, like he came out, he was a brand new chairman and he came out like in December of 2018 and he said, monetary policy is on autopilot.
They’re going to tighten, it’s on autopilot. The very next month, he paused, so he can switch on a dime and I expect that to happen again. So it’s just a matter of figuring out exactly when the market has deteriorated enough to the point where he is going to pivot on a dime if it is this month and he will, I think, continue to go along with that M.O.
[00:04:06] Q: That’s fair. I feel like…
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