JP Morgan believes Solana and other crypto ETFs unlikely to secure regulatory approval

JP Morgan managing director and global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said ETFs for Solana (SOL) and other assets are unlikely to succeed.

In a statement to The Block on May 27, Panigirtzoglou argued that the SEC’s recent decision to approve spot Ethereum ETFs is “already stretched.”

Whether the SEC considers ETH a security or a commodity is unclear despite the approvals.

Panigirtzoglou said the lack of clarity casts doubt on other assets, stating:

“We don’t think the SEC would go even further by approving Solana or other token ETFs.”

He added that the SEC believes tokens other than BTC and ETH should be classified as securities, a stronger stance than its one toward ETH itself.

Panigirtzoglou acknowledged that US lawmakers could create legislation to classify most cryptos as non-securities but said such legislation does not exist.

Others expect SOL ETFs

Some commentators are more optimistic about the chances of a SOL ETF.

Crypto investor Brian Kelly believes ETH ETF approvals could increase the odds of a Solana ETF approval but acknowledged that SOL’s status as a security is an issue.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expects a Solana ETF to succeed within years with legislation such as FIT21, which will delineate securities and futures markets. He similarly recognized Solana’s security status as a potential challenge.

Prediction market odds are low. Polymarket reports an approximately 13% chance that the SEC will approve a Solana ETF by 2024-end.

SEC considers SOL a security

Regardless of future treatment, the SEC has previously identified Solana and other altcoins as securities in various enforcement cases.

In its case against Coinbase, the SEC said that Solana was one of many tokens offered as an investment contract and security, both in past and present sales.

The regulator has highlighted Solana Labs’ $23 million Simple Agreement for Future Tokens (SAFTs) as one example of an offer and sale of securities. It has also called SOL a security in cases against Binance and Kraken.

However, the SEC has not initiated an enforcement against Solana Labs or related parties directly.