January Might Bring ‘Big Surprise,’ Crypto Trader Predicts

Crypto trader Gareth Soloway believes the market might witness in the first month of 2023 what he calls a “January Effect Crypto Pop” as Bitcoin volatility touches all-time lows.

He puts forward a catch: “The possibility of a dead cat bounce,” which is the upside move followed by a further downside.

#Bitcoin volatility is at all-time lows. Negatively and indifference is high. Minimal bear market rallies unlike the #StockMarket. Almost makes me think a January Effect #Crypto pop is coming before more downside. Hmmm. #Ethereum #Cardano #Solana #Ripple pic.twitter.com/STQJzukx8h

— Gareth Soloway (@GarethSoloway) December 29, 2022

January is often noted as a historically positive month for digital assets, particularly for altcoins. Oftentimes, the first week of January tends to be the best week of the month for crypto assets. In the second half of January, historically, the gains begin to slow down.

In past years, January has proven to be a bullish month for XRP. In January 2018, XRP rallied significantly to reach all-time highs of $3.18 only a few days into the year. The rally had consolidated on a 49,000% rise in the prior year of 2017. History may not, however, be a guarantee of future results.

According to Santiment, most crypto projects are at historical pain points where bounces often occur.

Is #Cardano severely undervalued at this point? One of @santimentfeed‘s key community members certainly sees data making this case, such as sharks & whales (holding 100K to 10M $ADA) accumulating aggressively these past 6 weeks. Read the latest insight! https://t.co/TPskmWBsOH pic.twitter.com/HC0aEWIVns

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 27, 2022

The on-chain analytics firm also opined in its recent report that ADA might be undervalued. 

It observes the exhaustion of sellers, and that shark and whale addresses holding 100,000 to 10 million ADA have been accumulating aggressively these past six weeks. According to Santiment analysts, a rise might be imminent for the ninth-largest cryptocurrency.

Market conditions heading into new year

2022 was a difficult year for digital assets. The crypto industry has been hit with macroeconomic challenges, market forces and scandals.

Investors are looking for clues about the outlook for 2023 in economic data releases, as anxiety over recession prospects and inflation trends has grown. Investors have also been examining how these factors might affect the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate decisions.

Many expect the Fed to slow or pause rate hikes in the new year, after raising rates to the highest level in 15 years earlier this month.