Is Trump Actually Good For Crypto?

With former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump about to appear at one of the largest Bitcoin conferences this week and the Democratic party in turmoil after Joe Biden stepped down, many in the crypto community wonder whether Trump’s pro-crypto shift is genuine.

The future of the blockchain industry in the U.S. hinges on the answer – if Trump gets elected.

Days after an assassination attempt against him, Trump confirmed his assistance to Bitcoin2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. Some saw this as a sign that Trump is definitely pro-crypto.

But with Trump, you just never know – even more so when it’s a campaign year.

On the one hand, he has made significant gestures in favor of the industry. Trump said he would commute Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht’s sentence on day one of his office. He also said he wants half of Bitcoin mining to stay in the country, and there are rumors he is going to announce a Bitcoin reserve strategy for the U.S.

Additionally, he recently named J.D. Vance, a senator who has held up to $250,000 in Bitcoin, as his running mate.

All of these actions have prompted crypto traders to view a Trump administration as bullish for the market.

The Trump Factor

That view was evident on July 13, when a shooter took aim at Trump’s head and fired three near-fatal shots. He survived, left the world with one of the most iconic photos of our times, and hours later, the crypto market ripped upwards. Less than a week later, Bitcoin had surged to $66,000, up from $57,000 the day Trump was shot at.

Ethereum followed a similar path, now trading for $3,500, up nearly 15% from $3,070 on the day of the shooting – as did the majority of the crypto market, especially memecoins associated with the former President.

But just because markets are responding favorably doesn’t mean Trump is unequivocally positive for the industry.

An Evolution

Trump has undergone a significant U-turn in his stance on crypto.

In 2019, he publicly blasted Bitcoin, saying “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including the drug trade and other illegal activity….”

Two years later, in 2021, he claimed, “Bitcoin is a scam against the dollar” during a Fox Business interview. Oddly, these words came as the former president continued to make NFTs based on his image.

Toward the end of his administration, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) proposed a regulation that would require firms that interact with digital wallets to collect their users’ identities.

After that, there was silence until May 8 this year, when Trump began to turn his stance around. At an event in Mar-A-Lago, Trump was pressed about how the U.S. was suffering a crypto brain drain due to the current administration’s clearly anti-crypto policy.

Trump responded, “We’re going to embrace them if we want them to say,” to a jeering crowd.

Swift changes in attitudes regarding crypto are cause for concern for some, like Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin.

He wrote on July 17 that he was against choosing political allegiances due to politicians’ stances on crypto. Buterin said politicians’ previous actions towards the industry, but more importantly, their actual values, could help predict future policies.

While Buterin doesn’t mention Trump directly, he urges future voters to examine whether Trump believes in the core tenets that underlie blockchain technology: Decentralization, censorship resistance, and transparency. Trump’s track record doesn’t make it clear.

Recession Awaits Along With The Money Printer

Still, some think Trump will be “unequivocally good” for crypto.

Those were the words that Rennick Palley, founding partner of crypto VC firm Stratos had for The Defiant, pointing to Trump’s pro-business behavior and the likelihood of a looming crisis.

“It seems likely that the next major recession, which seems likely to occur during the next administration, will be met with substantial injections of liquidity, he said, adding that a Democrat in the White House would probably also turn the money printer on. But on the margin, Palley said, it would happen more with Trump.

Palley is likely referring to Trump’s quick-to-print attitude during the COVID-19 crisis, when the outbreak forced him to lock down citizens and send out stimulus checks. What ensued were record-high stock market and cryptocurrency prices, even though they crashed the year after.

Recent Moves Nudge The Balance Towards Crypto

While not everyone is on board with Trump, some of his most recent campaign moves look promising.

A major one was naming Vance as vice president. The running mate is considered a staunch opponent of crypto’s sworn enemy: Gary Gensler.

Vance isn’t the only pro-crypto advisor Trump has placed in a high position of power. Trump’s chief of staff during his presidency, Mick Mulvaney, co-founded the Congressional Blockchain Caucus and advocated for regulation to benefit the industry. Trump also appointed Elad Roisman to the SEC, who has shown openness to crypto innovation.

As Comptroller of the Currency, Trump named Brian Brooks, a long-time executive in the crypto industry – including a brief stint at Binance, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange – who implemented several crypto-friendly policies.

These efforts by Trump could help to assuage concerns and reverse the trend that Biden’s administration has had for digital assets.

The Biden administration has been notoriously anti-crypto. The SEC has cracked down repeatedly on the industry, and a plethora of lawsuits were filed against several big-name crypto companies, such as Coinbase and Binance.

Innovation was pushed offshore in what some called “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” in which several governmental agencies allegedly launched a concerted attack against the industry.

It’s impossible to predict the future, and a polarizing figure like Trump can make it even harder.

One factor that can help gauge politicians’ actions is to track who is funding them. So far, according to followthecrypto.org, crypto lobbying groups have donated $223 million to candidates from both parties, although Political Action Committees (PACs) have only spent $39 million. More than $15 million has gone to Trump and Republicans, while $11 million has gone to Democrats.

What’s clear is that Trump appears to be favorable to crypto, but it might not be the best bet you’ve made on Polymarket just yet.