In prediction markets, traders bet on verifiable outcomes of real-world events in specified time frames. Typically, they buy “yes” or “no” shares in an outcome, and each share pays $1 if the prediction comes true, or zero if not. (On Polymarket, bets are settled in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades one-to-one for dollars; other platforms, including Kalshi and PredictIt, pay out regular greenbacks.)
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