BTC Traders on Edge Ahead of Trump’s Make or Break Crypto Summit

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Both traditional and crypto markets have stabilized in the past 48 hours, but key volatility indices remain elevated, calling for caution for bulls who are expecting a steady move higher.

Bitcoin, the crypto market leader, briefly topped $92,700, extending the recovery from lows around $81,500 on Tuesday. MOVE, CRO, ONDO and Render traded 10% to 17% higher as of writing. Broadly speaking, AI, gaming and Layer 2 coins are the best-performing crypto sub-sectors for the past 24 hours.

The positive move could be attributed to rumors that President Donald Trump will unveil a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve during Friday’s White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, hopes that Trump’s tariffs will likely not endure have helped restore the risk sentiment on Wall Street and Germany and China’s fiscal rockets have offered support to Asian and European equities.

Still, we haven’t seen a notable decline in the volatility indices. At press time, Volmex’s BVIV index, which measures the implied or expected 30-day price turbulence, held just five points below Tuesday’s high of 66% but well above the February low of 49.6%. Perhaps traders see Friday’s crypto summit as the make-or-break moment for crypto, as the President, having promised big for months, is now expected to deliver the goods as soon as possible.

In traditional markets, VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, held at 23.65 Wednesday, the highest since mid-December, according to data source TradingView. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures the 30-expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, remained elevated at 104, the highest since November (check chart of the day).

The elevated volatility in bonds is particularly concerning as it is known to cause financial tightening and weigh over risk assets. For now, however, a weaker dollar seems to be compensating for that.

Still, the sticky vol indices in traditional markets raise an important question: Is the market’s concern solely about tariffs, or are there underlying worries related to a significant slowdown driven by other factors such as potential fiscal consolidation?

The spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill has again turned negative, inverting the yield curve to suggest recession – consecutive quarterly contractions in the GDP. “[This is] generally not a good sign,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter said in Wednesday’s edition.

Early this week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model signaled a nearly 3% contraction in the U.S. GDP in the first quarter. The number is due for an update today. Recession fears will likely strengthen if we don’t see an improvement today, potentially pressuring risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Acheson summed up the situation best: “We are still navigating the tussle between narratives – on the one hand, risk-off sentiment driven by macro uncertainty could keep BTC and other crypto assets depressed for a while. On the other hand, the “safe haven” narrative is gaining strength, as positive news from the White House highlights the astonishing shift in official support.” Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 6, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council will announce its interest rate decision. Press conference (livestream link) at 8:45 a.m. The Monetary policy statement is released at 9:00 a.m. The ECB staff macroeconomic projections are released at 9:45 a.m.
    • Deposit Facility Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.75%
    • Main Refinancing Rate Est. 2.65% vs. Prev. 2.9%
    • Marginal Lending Rate Prev. 3.15%
  • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases employment data for the week that ended March 1.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 235K vs. Prev. 242K.
  • March 7, 7:00 a.m.: Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) releases February consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.46% vs. Prev. 0.41%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.62% vs. Prev. 3.66%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.27% vs. Prev. 0.29%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.77% vs. Prev. 3.59%
  • March 7, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases February employment data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 6.7% vs. Prev. 6.6%
    • Employment Change Est. 20K vs. Prev. 76K
  • March 7, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Labor Bureau of Statistics (LBS) releases February employment data.
    • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 160K vs. Prev. 143K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4% vs. Prev. 4%
  • March 8, 8:30 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases consumer price inflation data (CPI) and producer price inflation data (PPI).
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.7%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 0.5%
    • PPI YoY Prev. -2.3%
• Earnings (Ests. based on FactSet data)
  • March 6 (TBC): Bitfarms (BITF), $-0.06
  • March 17 (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT), $-0.05
  • March 18 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.04
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.39

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aave DAO is discussing the introduction of sGHO, a yield-bearing token that allows users to earn the Aave Savings Rate (ASR) by depositing GHO stablecoins.
  • Sandbox DAO is discussing establishing the Sandbox DAO Grants Program to distribute funding to projects more efficiently.
  • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: GMX to hold a Governance Community Call for the GMX DAO.
  • March 6, 10 a.m.: Near Protocol to host a Town Hall.
  • March 7, 10 a.m.: Maple to host an X Spaces where an “exciting announcement” will be revealed.
• Unlocks
  • March 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $12.43 million.
  • March 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.08% of its circulating supply worth $24.45 million.
  • March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $70.12 million.
  • March 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.42 million.
  • March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $12.88 million.
  • March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $39.46 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 6: Roam (ROAM) to be listed on KuCoin and MEXC.
  • March 6: Renzo (REZ) to be listed on Coinbase.
  • March 6: Redstone (RED) to be listed on KuCoin, LBank, BingX, and Bybit.
  • March 6: Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Binance.US

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Aave, a leading Ethereum-based lending protocol, is conducting a community check for “sGHO,” a low-risk savings product built around its native GHO stablecoin and a new “Aave Savings Rate,” to expand rewards for holders.
• sGHO aims to provide users with a yield-bearing ERC-20 token by depositing GHO, with the savings rate tied to the native yield from a USDC pool on Aave’s V3.
• The launch of sGHO, featuring no withdrawal or deposit fees, is part of Aave DAO’s aggressive growth strategy to drive GHO adoption during a depressed yield market.
• Alongside sGHO, Aave is pursuing other initiatives to expand GHO’s user base, such as introducing it as a gas token across different blockchains and integrating it into various ecosystems, while also approving a treasury rebalancing to reduce risks and improve liquidity on Aave v3.

Derivatives Positioning

• Funding rates for most major tokens, except ADA, XRP and TON, are positive, per data source Velo Data. The negative figure for the three coins suggests bias for shorts and potential for a short squeeze should the spot price hold resilient.
• BTC, ETH funding rates remain mildly positive.
• Market stability has yet to bring a notable increase in the CME BTC and ETH’s future open interest. This shows institutions are likely still wary of potential downside risks.
• BTC, ETH options risk reversals now show a bias for puts out to April expiry.

Market Movements:

• BTC is up 1.07% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $91,402.24 (24hrs: +1.66%)
• ETH is up 2.66% at $2,296.32 (24hrs: +3.55%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.4% at 3,009.09 (24hrs: +2.99%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 35 bps at 3%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0081% (8.9% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.11% at 104.16
• Gold is down 0.21% at $2,909.10/oz
• Silver is up 0.33% at $32.97/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.77% at 37,704.93
• Hang Seng closed +3.29% at 24,369.71
• FTSE is down 1.07% at 8,661.73
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.41% at 5,466.55
• DJIA closed on Wednesday +1.14% at 43,006.59
• S&P 500 closed +1.12% at 5,842.63
• Nasdaq closed +1.46% at 18,552.73
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.22% at 24,870.80
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.43% at 2,342.30
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.3%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.12% at 5,785.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.33% at 20,391.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.95% at 42,658.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.33 (-0.41%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02516 (1.74%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 790 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $50.5
• Total Fees: 4.82 BTC / $430,123
• CME Futures Open Interest: 144,250 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.85%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin is pushing against the horizontal resistance line from Jan. 9 and Feb. 3 lows. The next resistance is the descending trendline from record highs.
• A failure to surge past these key levels could entice more technical sellers, potentially leading to a re-test of the 200-day average support at around $83K.

Crypto Equities

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $308.55 (+12.14%), down 0.55% at $306.85 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $222.45 (+4.66%), down 1.38% at $219.38
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.34 (+6.83%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.12 (+8.23%), down 0.4% at $15.06
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.88 (+5.59%), down 1.58% at $8.74
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.60 (+0.1%), down 23.71% at $7.32
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.55 (+10.18%), down 1.29% at $8.44
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.20 (+5.78%), down 4.48% at $16.43
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.37 (+0.03%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.01 (-31.71%), up 6.48% at $30.89

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $22.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.75 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,128 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$63.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.76 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.635 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The MOVE index has topped the January high, suggesting increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes.
• Volatile bonds often cause risk aversion.

While You Were Sleeping

• ECB Expected to Cut Interest Rates as Traders Pile Into Fed Easing Bets (CoinDesk): The ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate to 2.65% on Thursday, adding to global liquidity easing and potentially boosting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• Bitcoin Surges to $92K, XRP Prices Muted as White House Crypto Summit Looms (CoinDesk): Major cryptocurrencies gained on Thursday ahead of Friday’s White House event, with bitcoin briefly surpassing $92,000 before pulling back.
• Trump-Backed World Liberty Financial Snaps Up $21.5M in WBTC, ETH, MOVE: CoinDesk (CoinDesk): On-chain data shows a DeFi startup linked to the Trump family added 4,468 ETH, 110.6 WBTC and 3.42 million MOVE to its treasury on Wednesday.
• The Recession Trade Is Back on Wall Street (The Wall Street Journal): U.S. recession fears are rising among analysts and investors as trade war concerns, weakening economic data, and federal government layoffs have dented consumer confidence and sent equity indexes lower.
• More Words Than Deeds From China on Consumption Keep Deflation in Play (Reuters): Despite China’s push for fiscal stimulus to boost household spending and counter deflation amid tariff concerns, analysts say bolder structural reforms and stronger welfare measures are needed.
• South Korea’s Mint Is Grappling With a Gold Bar Shortage as Supply Constraints Bite (CNBC): Amid political uncertainty and a weakening won, South Korea’s mint suspended gold bar sales last month, with vending machines selling out and banks pausing sales due to tight supply.

In the Ether