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Bitcoin’s Outlook: Short-Term vs. Long-Term

Altszn.com by Altszn.com
January 9, 2025
in Blockchain, Crypto, DeFi, Web3
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Bitcoin’s Outlook: Short-Term vs. Long-Term
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Bitcoin rounded out an exceptionally strong 2024 (up 120% yoy) with a whimper, logging the first overbought “sell” signal on its weekly bar chart since mid-April according to the stochastic oscillator, which is an indicator of trend exhaustion. The signal suggests bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term (roughly 2-6 weeks), as other risk assets (e.g., equities) continue to pull back.

Bitcoin - Weekly - Chart

Key technical levels to watch for bitcoin:

  • Minor resistance is at the most recent high, near $108K, above which is “uncharted” territory. A breakout would be a bullish development, but the momentum does not appear strong enough to generate a breakout at this time.
  • Initial support is near $84.5K, defined by the Ichimoku cloud model, which is a trend-following model based on historical prices. Recent deterioration in our intermediate-term indicators increases the chances that a pullback will deepen further, with secondary support near $73.8K, reinforced by the rising 200-day (~40-week) moving average.

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Despite short- and intermediate-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains bullish from a technical perspective following the post-election breakout in November. The breakout to new highs marked emergence from a several-month downtrend channel, and it helped long-term momentum indicators like the monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) reaccelerate. Thus, a correction for bitcoin in Q1 should present an opportunity to add exposure ahead of another upleg in bitcoin later in 2025.

Ethereum: resistance near $4000 is a hurdle for early 2025

Like bitcoin, ether has flashed an overbought “sell” signal, which comes after a rejection at important resistance near $4000. The “sell” signal has intermediate-term implications, supporting a corrective phase over the next couple of months. Ether also has initial support at the daily Ichimoku cloud model, near $3226, above which it has stabilized. We expect a correction in Q1 to lead to a breakdown and test of the 200-day (40-week) moving average. However, our long-term indicators still point higher, albeit less convincingly, compared to bitcoin. A breakout above the $4000 level would likely result in improved long-term metrics like the monthly MACD.

Ether - Weekly - Chart

Bitcoin vs. ether: 2024 outperformance by bitcoin gives way to volatility

In 2024, bitcoin outperformed ether by 74%, a trend that can be clearly seen in the bitcoin/ether ratio. Since early November, relative performance has become more fickle between the two largest cryptocurrencies, evidenced by the wide trading range that has taken hold of the ratio.

During a crypto market correction, bitcoin normally outperforms ether since it is usually deemed as “safer.” However, all cryptocurrencies are likely to trade lower in absolute terms when risk assets are undergoing a correction, noting that correlations tend to go up when markets go down. Nevertheless, a bullish long-term outlook suggests that Q1 volatility may present an opportunity to add exposure with a more favorable risk/reward profile, ideally waiting for the intermediate-term indicators to turn up again.

Bitcoin vs. Ether - weekly - chart





Read More: www.coindesk.com

Tags: bitcoinsDeFiLongTermOutlookshortterm
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    • bitcoinBitcoin (BTC) $ 103,033.00
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    • wrapped-stethWrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,817.57
    • stellarStellar (XLM) $ 0.298251
    • shiba-inuShiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000015
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    • hyperliquidHyperliquid (HYPE) $ 24.94
    • bitcoin-cashBitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 414.20
    • the-open-networkToncoin (TON) $ 3.30
    • leo-tokenLEO Token (LEO) $ 8.68
    • usdsUSDS (USDS) $ 1.00
    • litecoinLitecoin (LTC) $ 104.30
    • polkadotPolkadot (DOT) $ 4.90
    • wethWETH (WETH) $ 2,351.78
    • moneroMonero (XMR) $ 317.25
    • wrapped-eethWrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,506.94
    • bitget-tokenBitget Token (BGB) $ 4.56
    • pepePepe (PEPE) $ 0.000013
    • pi-networkPi Network (PI) $ 0.734246
    • binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chainBinance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
    • coinbase-wrapped-btcCoinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 103,080.00
    • ethena-usdeEthena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
    • whitebitWhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 30.29
    • uniswapUniswap (UNI) $ 6.48
    • bittensorBittensor (TAO) $ 428.53
    • nearNEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.92
    • aptosAptos (APT) $ 5.62
    • daiDai (DAI) $ 1.00
    • okbOKB (OKB) $ 55.21
    • aaveAave (AAVE) $ 212.20
    • ondo-financeOndo (ONDO) $ 1.01
    • susdssUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.05
    • official-trumpOfficial Trump (TRUMP) $ 14.73
    • ethereum-classicEthereum Classic (ETC) $ 19.27
    • internet-computerInternet Computer (ICP) $ 5.48
    • crypto-com-chainCronos (CRO) $ 0.102043
    • blackrock-usd-institutional-digital-liquidity-fundBlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00
    • bitcoinBitcoin (BTC) $ 103,033.00
    • ethereumEthereum (ETH) $ 2,348.40
    • tetherTether (USDT) $ 1.00
    • xrpXRP (XRP) $ 2.36
    • bnbBNB (BNB) $ 672.14
    • solanaSolana (SOL) $ 172.30
    • usd-coinUSDC (USDC) $ 0.999997
    • dogecoinDogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.206157
    • cardanoCardano (ADA) $ 0.781128
    • tronTRON (TRX) $ 0.263093
    • staked-etherLido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 2,349.15
    • wrapped-bitcoinWrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 102,968.00
    • suiSui (SUI) $ 3.97
    • chainlinkChainlink (LINK) $ 16.05
    • avalanche-2Avalanche (AVAX) $ 23.41
    • wrapped-stethWrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,817.57
    • stellarStellar (XLM) $ 0.298251
    • shiba-inuShiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000015
    • hedera-hashgraphHedera (HBAR) $ 0.202410
    • hyperliquidHyperliquid (HYPE) $ 24.94
    • bitcoin-cashBitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 414.20
    • the-open-networkToncoin (TON) $ 3.30
    • leo-tokenLEO Token (LEO) $ 8.68
    • usdsUSDS (USDS) $ 1.00
    • litecoinLitecoin (LTC) $ 104.30
    • polkadotPolkadot (DOT) $ 4.90
    • wethWETH (WETH) $ 2,351.78
    • moneroMonero (XMR) $ 317.25
    • wrapped-eethWrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,506.94
    • bitget-tokenBitget Token (BGB) $ 4.56
    • pepePepe (PEPE) $ 0.000013
    • pi-networkPi Network (PI) $ 0.734246
    • binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chainBinance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00
    • coinbase-wrapped-btcCoinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 103,080.00
    • ethena-usdeEthena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00
    • whitebitWhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 30.29
    • uniswapUniswap (UNI) $ 6.48
    • bittensorBittensor (TAO) $ 428.53
    • nearNEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.92
    • aptosAptos (APT) $ 5.62
    • daiDai (DAI) $ 1.00
    • okbOKB (OKB) $ 55.21
    • aaveAave (AAVE) $ 212.20
    • ondo-financeOndo (ONDO) $ 1.01
    • susdssUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.05
    • official-trumpOfficial Trump (TRUMP) $ 14.73
    • ethereum-classicEthereum Classic (ETC) $ 19.27
    • internet-computerInternet Computer (ICP) $ 5.48
    • crypto-com-chainCronos (CRO) $ 0.102043
    • blackrock-usd-institutional-digital-liquidity-fundBlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) $ 1.00