Bitcoin to $200K in ’18-24 months’ – What will drive the price?

• Exec sees a potentially better macro environment as a catalyst for BTC in the midterm. 
• Standard Chartered exec projects $150K per BTC by end-2024. 

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recovery remained steady after it reclaimed $66K, about 11% away from its all-time high of $73.7K in mid-March. 

When zoomed out, the price action is stuck in the range between $60K and $71K. However, the consolidation hasn’t dented long-term bullish sentiment.

Asked what could be potential catalysts for BTC price in the rest of the year, Nico Cordeiro, CIO of digital asset hedge fund Strix Leviathan, tipped the macro environment. He stated,

“The Federal Reserve is in on a trajectory to lower rates, despite inflation being sticky, despite fiscal spending being at record levels. It’s a good set-up for risks, both on the technology and cryptocurrencies.”

He added, 

“There’s a debate on whether Bitcoin is a safe haven or a high-risk hybrid asset. We kind of view the latter. From a macro overview, it looks pretty good for crypto.”

End-year BTC price projection

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes also projected quantitative tightening (QT), done through Fed rate hikes, to ease starting in May. Part of the statement in early April read, 

“After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices.”

On his part, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, sees spot BTC ETF flow maturity as a major catalyst for BTC price going forward. In a recent Bloomberg interview, Kendrick noted, 

“I anticipate from the the start of this year to when the ETF market in the US market matures, you’ll get between $50B to $100B in inflow. So far, we have $12B. That can happen in 18-24 months.”

Comparing gold ETF maturity with BTC’s, Kendrick highlighted,

“The price of gold multiplied by 4.3 times, that could get us to the $150K – $200K range.”

Additionally, the Standard Chartered executive projected that institutional investors’ allocation to gold vs. BTC could hit 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin. 

In the meantime, BTC must make a definitive break above the range-high to show further bullish intention. 

According to market cycle analyst, Rekt Capital, extended consolidation between $60K and $70K could set the bull market to peak in Q3 2025. 

“The more this cycle will decelerate and re-synchronize with its regular historically-recurring Halving Cycle with a Bull Market peak in mid-September/October 2025.” 

If so, the current BTC price range extension could last awhile before Kendrick’s end-year targets become feasible.