Ethereum price rally stalls as economist maintains recession odds at 60%

Ethereum price pulled back and erased some of the gains made earlier on Thursday as concerns about trade remained.

Ethereum (ETH), the second top cryptocurrency, dropped to $1,560, down from the intraday high of $1,700. Other top altcoins like Zcash (ZEC), Tezos (XTZ), and EOS (EOS) also pulled back from their highest levels during the day. Bitcoin dropped from $82,000 to $80,000.

Ethereum and these altcoins dropped alongside the broader stock market, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices falling by 950 and 650 points, respectively.

The primary driver of this retreat is growing concern that the US may be heading toward a recession, even after Donald Trump paused some of his Liberation Day tariffs.

In a post on X, Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, warned there was a 60% chance of the US entering a recession this year. His comments carry weight, as Moody’s is the second-largest ratings agency globally, and Zandi is considered one of the top economists in the country.

It was encouraging to see the President reverse himself on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%.

— Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) April 10, 2025

Zandi pointed to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, with both countries escalating tariffs. Chinese goods entering the US are now subject to a 125% tariff, while the US is being charged 85% on exports to China. This is particularly significant, given the two nations are among the largest trading partners globally.

He also highlighted that the US still maintains a 10% tariff on goods from other countries, with specific sectors like automobiles, steel, and aluminum facing tariffs of 25%. As a result, Zandi estimates the effective US tariff rate at 20%, far higher than that of most other countries.

Ethereum price technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that Ethereum remains in a downtrend as recession fears persist. The decline began after ETH formed a triple-top pattern at $4,065. It subsequently broke below the key support level of $2,125, its lowest level from October last year. It also dropped beneath the ascending trendline connecting swing lows since June 2022.

The Relative Strength Index and the MACD indicators are pointing downward, with the RSI nearing oversold territory. Therefore, Ethereum’s price will likely continue falling, with sellers targeting the next key psychological level at $1,000.