Risk-Off Remains the Theme as Market Settles

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market is looking to regain some poise after yesterday’s tumble with on-chain indicators showing signs of capitulation in bitcoin. Some tokens, like MakerDAO’s MKR, stand out with a 20% gain in 24 hours, thanks to the DAO’s buyback and burn process.

IP, the native token of decentralized intellectual property-focused blockchain Story Protocol, is also in the green, having risen nearly 40%. The token’s price has doubled in two weeks after being listed on South Korean exchanges.

Other notable outperformers include Celestia’s TIA along with XDC, QNT and HYPE. Data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain shows whales have been buying the dip in the HYPE token. XRP, meanwhile, is hanging on to a key Fibonacci level, keeping bulls’ hope for bigger gains alive.

According to Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, the crypto market is digesting the end of the recent memecoin frenzy, which could be replaced by productive sectors such as stablecoins, real-world assets and DeFi. “But until they start making their presence felt, the loss of energy will create a drag on the market,” Hougan said on X.

On the macroeconomic front, the optimism seen after the Nov. 4 election is being replaced by caution, as evidenced by Tuesday’s release of the U.S. consumer confidence. The gauge dropped to an eight-month low, and the one-year inflation expectations were highest for 1.5 years, with President Donald Trump’s tariffs singled out as the primary concern in almost every household and business survey.

The dour sentiment and a strengthening yen might keep the upside in risk assets restricted for some time. Earlier this week, Belgium’s central bank’s head, Pierre Wunsch, warned that the ECB risks sleep-walking into too many rate cuts. The Fed, for its part, is unlikely to do QE anytime soon. (Sure, the January meeting minutes discussed an end of quantitive tightening, but that does not mean quantitative easing.)

Speaking of key events to watch out for, the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Cynthia Lummis, is set to revisit crypto regulations during Wednesday’s scheduled hearing titled “Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Assets.” Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases January’s New Residential Sales report.
    • New Home Sales Est. 0.68M vs. Prev. 0.698M
    • New Home Sales MoM Prev. 3.6%
  • Feb. 26-27: 2025’s first G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting (Cape Town).
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q4 GDP (2nd estimate).
    • Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%
    • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.5%
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
  • Feb. 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases Unemployment Insurance Weekly claims for the week ended Feb. 22.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 221K vs. Prev. 219K
• Earnings
  • Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13
  • Feb. 26: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.85

Token Events

• Governances votes & calls
  • Frax DAO is discussing upgrading the protocol by renaming FXS to FRAX, making it the gas token on Fraxtal, implementing the Frax North Star hard fork, and introducing a tail emission plan with gradually decreasing emissions and other enhancements.
  • DYdX DAO is voting on distributing $1.5 million in DYDX tokens from the community treasury to qualifying users in trading season 9 as part of its incentives program.
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $33.97 million.
  • Mar. 1: DYdX to unlock 1.14% of circulating supply worth $5.76 million.
  • Mar. 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.48% of circulating supply worth $12.81 million.
  • Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $68.90 million.
  • Mar. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 1.3% of circulating supply worth $16.47 million.
  • Mar. 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.63% of circulating supply worth $14.85 million.
  • Mar. 8: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 9.28% of circulating supply worth $70.90 million.
• Token Listings
  • Feb. 26: Moonwell (WELL) to be listed on Kraken.
  • Feb. 27: Venice token (VVV) to be listed on Kraken.
  • Feb. 28: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• Solana, often criticized over its inflationary monetary policy, is currently considering implementing a governance proposal to change it, SIMD-0228.
• The proposal would introduce a dynamic, market-driven emissions model for SOL tokens and potentially reduce inflation.
• The proposal would move the blockchain away from its current fixed emissions model that has seen SOL’s circulating supply increase to around 500 million tokens.
• Elsewhere Story Protocol’s token, IP, has been bucking the bearish trend that gripped the cryptocurrency market over the last few days. IP outperformed the broader CoinDesk 20 Index as traders bet on the tokenization of intellectual property.
• The industry ecosystem is also rallying behind cryptocurrency exchange Bybit after its $1.5 billion hack. The exchange has launched a “war against Lazarus” to crowdsource investigative efforts against the North Korean-linked group.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC’s one-month CME futures basis has dropped to 4%, the lowest in nearly two years, according to Velo Data. That’s a sign of weakening bullish sentiment. Ether’s basis has dropped to just over 5%.
• Perpetual funding rates for TRX, AVAX, XLM, SHIB and OM are negative, reflecting a bias for bearish short positions.
• BTC, ETH short-term puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting fears of a continued price drop.

Market Movements:

• BTC is up 1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $89,19377 (24hrs: -0.11%)
• ETH is down 0.36% at $2,487.88 (24hrs: +2.19%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.42% at 2,882.89 (24hrs: +2.34%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 29 bps at 3.28%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.6% annualized) on OKX

• DXY is up 0.17% 106.49
• Gold is down 0.24% at $2,913.89/oz
• Silver is down 0.78% at $31.78/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -0.25% at 38,142.37
• Hang Seng closed +3.27% at 23,787.93
• FTSE is up 0.54% at 8,715.19
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.14% at 5,510.13
• DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.37% at 43,621.16
• S&P 500 closed -0.47% at 5,955.25
• Nasdaq closed -1.35% at 19,026.39
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.21% at 25,203.98
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.19% at 2,390.95
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.32%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% at 5,999.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.82% at 21,321.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.27% at 43,808.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.11 (0.13%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02793 (-0.75%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 746 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $52.40
• Total Fees: 11.39 BTC / $1.1 million
• CME Futures Open Interest: 164,970 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 30.5 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.66%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin’s hourly chart shows the MACD histogram has been biased bullish since late Tuesday. Still, there has been little progress to the upside in terms of price.
• The divergence between prices and MACD, coupled with the downward sloping key averages, suggests potential for another round of selling before a meaningful bottom is reached.
• A convincing move above $90,000 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.

Crypto Equities

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $250.51 (-11.41%), up 3.66% at $259.68 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $212.49 (-6.42%), up 2.04% at $216.82
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$20.09 (-7.84%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.41 (-10.62%), up 2.86% at $12.77
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.32 (-6.71%), up 2.79% at $9.58
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.76 (-1.01%), up 3.28% at $10.08
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.15 (-8.43%), up 1.96% at $8.31
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.04 (-11.25%), up 4.46% at $17.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $42.42 (-4.42%), up 2.5% at $43.48
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $39.86 (-3.16%), down 1% at $39.46

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$937.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $38.09 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,157 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$50.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $3.02 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.750 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The net selling volume in BTC on Tuesday was the strongest since May 2021, according to data tracked by Glassnode and Andre Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise.
• Perhaps weak hands have capitulated, leaving the market in a much healthier state.

While You Were Sleeping

• XRP, BNB Edge Higher as Bitcoin Bulls Eye $90K After Tuesday Bloodbath (CoinDesk): Bitcoin rebounded to nearly $89,000 with major cryptocurrencies XRP and BNB also showing signs of a cautious recovery.
• Bitcoin’s Tuesday Bloodbath Was the Bottom, Analyst Says (CoinDesk): On-chain signals suggest limited further downside.
• U.S. Bitcoin ETFs See Record Daily Outflow of Over $930M as Carry Trades Lose Shine to the 10-Year Treasury Note (CoinDesk); Tuesday marked the steepest single-day redemption for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs since their inception.
• Circle Says Stablecoin Issuers Should Be U.S. Registered (Bloomberg): Jeremy Allaire, co-founder of stablecoin issuer Circle, said issuers of dollar-pegged crypto tokens should be registered in the U.S.
• Treasury Yields Rebound Slightly, Dollar Undermined by US Growth Worries (Reuters): The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.3271% after the U.S. House passed a budget bill that paves the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts.
• Top Finance Ministers Snub G20 as Global Co-Operation Comes Under Strain (Financial Times): This week’s G20 meeting in South Africa is notable for the absence of finance ministers from the U.S., China, Japan, India, Brazil and Mexico, prompting doubts about the forum’s effectiveness.

In the Ether