‘Fediverse’ predicted to overtake metaverse in 2023

Research firm GlobalData is forecasting a consumer “metaverse winter” in 2023, as investors and software developers start rethinking their former investment enthusiasm in the immersive technology.

This is one of the key predictions revealed in the data and analytics company’s latest research report, released this week on what to expect in 2023 from telco consumer services, platforms and devices in 2023.

In the report, GlobalData notes that as companies grapple with economic turbulence they are reducing non-essential spending, and redirecting some investments in technology and modernisation initiatives.

While the metaverse gained popularity in 2021/2022, as more companies hoped to deliver operational and revenue improvements, this year is expected to see less interest in the emerging tech, says the company.

However, GlobalData predicts a rise of ‘fediverse’ or ‘federated universe’. It is an ensemble of federated (i.e. interconnected) servers that are used for web publishing (i.e. social networking, microblogging, blogging, or websites) and file hosting, according to fediverse.info.

“The key players in subscription video-on-demand, photo sharing and micro-blogging will continue to experience user losses, as younger Gen Z’s discover the charms of ‘the fediverse’ and social networking alternative such as BeReal or Mastodon.

“Meanwhile, we are predicting a consumer ‘metaverse winter’ in 2023 as investors and software developers scale back ambitions to specific, more easily monetisable extended reality use cases and partnerships, particularly with OEMs,” it says.

This could be followed by a ‘fediverse spring’, as new platforms with a decentralised but connected multi-server proposition provide new experiences for social digital, it says.

According to Adweek, marketers and agency leaders may be adjusting their technology priorities – a move that is expected to see the use of metaverse experiences and non-fungible tokens decline, while investments in artificial intelligence continues to grow.

Similarly, research firm ABI Research lists the metaverse among the “Tech Trends That WON’T Happen in 2023“.

“The year 2023 will not be when industrial and manufacturing firms invest vast sums in the metaverse. Staff will not be creating avatars and solving challenges in virtual worlds. The economic climate does not lend itself to investments that lack a clear pathway to value, such as virtual worlds,” says ABI Research.